Rupee depreciation, if it continues, will likely pull the markets down further. Since September 2024, the rupee has declined by 3.1 per cent, the Nifty has dropped by 8.5 per cent during the same period, and the Sensex has fallen by 7.3 per cent. If the decline continues, markets will need to brace for more pain as it could push foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) to exit their positions faster than anticipated.
Markets to track inflation data, global trends, FII trading this week: Analysts New Delhi, Dec 8 (PTI) Investors' sentiments will be guided by a host of domestic and global macroeconomic data announcements this week, along with the trading activity of foreign investors and trends in world stocks, analysts said. Besides, the rupee-dollar trend and movement of global oil benchmark Brent crude will also be crucial in dictating terms in the market, experts added. "The domestic stock market is likely to be shaped by a mix of global cues, domestic economic indicators, and the flow of investments from foreign and domestic institutional investors. Key factors like the rupee's exchange rate and crude oil prices will play a critical role in determining market trends. "Globally, geopolitical tensions, particularly the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict, continue to pose challenges. However, recent declines in the dollar index and US bond yields have created a more favourable environment for emerging markets like India," Pravesh Gour, Senior Technical Analyst, Swastika Investmart Ltd, said. On the economic front, significant macroeconomic releases, including retail inflation and industrial production data from India as well as US core CPI, are expected to influence overall market sentiment, Gour added. Last week, the BSE benchmark jumped 1,906.33 points or 2.38 per cent, and the NSE Nifty climbed 546.7 points or 2.26 per cent. "FIIs turning buyers in early December, in a total reversal of their sustained selling strategy during the last two months, has altered the market sentiments. The change in FII (Foreign Institutional Investors) strategy is getting reflected in stock price movements, particularly in large-cap banking stocks in which FIIs have been sellers," VK Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist, Geojit Financial Services, said. The release of US CPI inflation data will give some insights into the Fed's December meeting, an expert said. "The markets' attention is expected to turn towards macroeconomic indicators like IIP and CPI inflation. Additionally, the trend of FII inflows, following their recent buying spree, will remain a key focal point for market participants," Ajit Mishra - SVP, Research, Religare Broking Ltd, said. Siddhartha Khemka, Head - Research, Wealth Management, Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd, said this week will see significant economic data releases, including GDP numbers from Japan and the UK, along with China's CPI and India's CPI.
'Investors should not go for lump-sum investments in infrastructure funds at this point.' 'The SIP route is the best to avoid any major disappointment.'
The October-December quarter (Q3FY25) results of fast moving consumer goods (FMCG) major Hindustan Unilever (HUL) indicated weak demand, with urban growth muted and rural showing recovery. Consolidated revenue grew by 1.6 per cent (volume was flat) to Rs 15,818 crore, due to price hikes. Prices of key raw materials such as palm oil and tea remained elevated, leading to compression of gross margin.
Ajit Mishra, vice president, research, Religare Broking, answers your queries.
'Higher valuation remains the only spoiler for equities.'
HDFC Bank on Wednesday reported a 2.3 per cent year-on-year rise in its consolidated net profit to Rs 17,657 crore for the October-December quarter, restricted by slower loan growth. On a standalone basis, the largest private sector lender's net profit came at Rs 16,735.50 crore for the period, up from Rs 16,372.54 crore in the year-ago period, but marginally down from the preceding quarter's Rs 16,820.97 crore.
Smallcap mutual funds recorded net outflows for the first time in 30 months in March as investors pulled out money after the markets regulator, the Securities and Exchange Board of India (Sebi), warned against "froth" in the mid and smallcap space. Active equity mutual fund (MF) schemes raked in Rs 22,600 crore in March. The March inflow is 16 per cent lower than the two-year high inflow of Rs 26,860 crore in February, shows data from the Association of MFs in India (Amfi).
From its recent lows, the stock of consumer major Marico is up 7 per cent on the back of a better-than-expected June quarter performance and robust outlook. In a pre-quarter update, the management indicated that domestic volume growth should witness an improvement in FY25, while other segments (growth portfolio, international business) too would see traction going ahead. The near-term trigger is strong sales and operating performance for Q1FY25.
rediffGURU Ramalingam Kalirajan answers your personal finance queries.
Ask rediffGURU and PF and MF expert Janak Patel your mutual fund and personal finance-related questions.
Returns of liquid funds are meant only for the short term and don't help investors create wealth over the long term, as equity funds do.
Marico may buck the industry trend with the fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) major reporting strong growth and favourable commentary in a weak quarter for the industry. The company reported consolidated revenue growth of 8 per cent year-on-year (Y-o-Y) in Q2FY25. Domestic revenue growth was 8 per cent Y-o-Y with 5 per cent volume growth (4 per cent in Q1FY25).
'Expectations are high regarding the change in LTCG with respect to equity investments.'
Multi-asset allocation funds emerged as the most popular option for MFs as they provided the needed flexibility.
Concerns have been raised over Marico's exposure to Bangladesh in the wake of turmoil in that country. However, the management reiterated expectations of growing domestic business at double digits and maintaining international growth. Marico scaled up its food business by 4 times between FY20-24 and aims to double it again in the next three financial years.
Follow this 15 x 15 x 15 rule to become a crorepati without taking big risks. Ramalingam Kalirajan explains how
Those who cannot bear significant downturns (as much as 40 per cent) or have a short horizon should exit entirely.
'Indian investors have always been debt-heavy but with growing financial awareness they are getting comfortable with equities.'
One category which stands out is fixed maturity plans due to its tax benefits, notes Prateek Mehta, CEO and company-co-founder, Upwardly.in.
Largecap, flexicap, and balanced advantage funds together recorded a net inflow of Rs 9,363 crore in August, representing a 70% increase from the previous month's total.
Outflows are likely to continue, experts say, till such time as the markets see a significant correction.
Ask rediffGURU and PF and MF expert Janak Patel your mutual fund and personal finance-related questions.
The recent circular follows the 'true-to-label' concept, but large funds in the multi-cap category may be forced to merge in the absence of sufficient small-cap options.
Industry body Association of Mutual Funds in India on Friday assured investors that a majority of fixed income mutual funds assets are invested in superior credit quality securities and such schemes have appropriate liquidity to ensure normal operations. The statement by the industry body came after Franklin Templeton Mutual Fund voluntarily decided to wind up its six debt schemes citing redemption pressure and lack of liquidity in bond markets due to the coronavirus pandemic.
rediffGURU Ramalingam Kalirajan answers your personal finance queries.
Neelesh Surana, who manages Mirae Asset Tax Saver and Mirae Asset Emerging Bluechip, remains constructive on Indian equities from a three to five-year time frame.
'Ajit Pawar is trying to sideline us; he is trying to be in the BJP's good books at our cost.'
A Rs 525-crore contingency provision during the July-September period led to a 19 per cent fall in IndusInd Bank's share price on Friday (October 25). Contingency provisions are generally made when a lender expects more bad loans in the coming quarters. Shares of the bank on Tuesday (October 29) declined 1.53 per cent to settle at Rs 1,038.2 apiece on the BSE.
The July-September quarter (Q2) results for 2024-25 (FY25) from the largest listed consumer electrical solutions companies, Havells India and Polycab India, followed similar trends, demonstrating robust revenue growth while falling short of profitability expectations. Both companies witnessed overall growth in the 16-30 per cent range, but margins declined by 130-290 basis points (bps) year-on-year (Y-o-Y). Although brokerages are bullish on long-term prospects and have raised revenue projections, earnings forecasts have been revised downward due to margin pressures.
Regardless of market levels, invest in stocks and equity mutual funds in a staggered manner.
'More investors now view the stock market as a valuable opportunity, though many still seek quick gains, leading to a rise in futures and options trading.'
'A 10 to 15 per cent allocation to gold in portfolios reduces risk without compromising on potential returns.'
Prime Minister Narendra Modi will on Friday launch two schemes of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) that may go a long way in changing how the household sector invests, and complains if anything goes wrong with their savings. These schemes - retail direct and an integrated ombudsman - will be launched by the Prime Minister virtually, in the presence of Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman. With the introduction of retail direct, a common man can directly take a position in government securities (G-Sec), considered to be the safest asset class a sovereign can offer.
The Securities and Exchange Board of India (Sebi) may allow non-resident Indians (NRIs) and Overseas Citizens of India (OCIs) greater exposure to domestic equities if their investments are sent through foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) registered at the GIFT City International Financial Services Centre (IFSC). The proposal will be taken during Sebi's board meeting on Saturday along with other key agenda items such as easing of voluntary delisting mechanism and introduction of a regulatory framework for real estate fractional ownership platforms, said people in the know. At present, the combined holdings of NRIs and OCIs in a global fund have to be less than 50 per cent, while that of a single NRI or OCI is capped at 25 per cent.
Home appliance maker Crompton Greaves Consumer Electricals reported better than expected performance in the second quarter (Q2) of 2024-25 (FY25), outperforming peers due to a strong showing in the electrical consumer durables (ECD) segment. The company's standalone sales rose by 10.5 per cent, while the ECD segment continued its growth momentum with a 12.5 per cent increase in revenues, driven by volume and pricing gains.
This will be the first full-year Budget of the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance government since it came to power for a third consecutive term in July last year.
A man suspected to have contracted Guillain-Barre syndrome (GBS) has died in Maharashtra's Solapur district, while the number of cases of the immunological nerve disorder in Pune rose to 110, health officials said on Monday.
'Regardless of whether you invest Rs 100 or Rs 1 crore per month, risk is inevitable.' 'Positive returns at the end of the year can never be guaranteed.' 'This is a fundamental truth every SIP investor must grasp.'
'While investors need to be prepared for making some losses, they should not lose big money chasing euphoria amid fear of missing out.'
